Global warming could be driving up women’s cancer risk
A new study published in Frontiers in Public Health reveals a troubling connection between climate change and cancer mortality in women across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). As temperatures continue to rise, the incidence and death rates of breast, ovarian, uterine, and cervical cancer are climbing — especially in regions already vulnerable to the effects of global warming.
“As temperatures rise, cancer mortality among women also rises — particularly for ovarian and breast cancers,” said Dr. Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria, lead author and researcher at the American University in Cairo. “Although the increases per degree of temperature rise are modest, their cumulative public health impact is substantial.”
Warmer climates, higher risks: the data behind the trend
To better understand the link between climate and cancer, researchers examined cancer statistics and temperature records from 17 countries across the MENA region between 1998 and 2019. These included Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the UAE.
Their findings were stark: for every 1°C increase in average temperature, cases of breast, ovarian, uterine, and cervical cancers increased by 173 to 280 per 100,000 people. Mortality rose by 171 to 332 deaths per 100,000 people, with ovarian cancer showing the steepest climb in both prevalence and deaths.
“Women are physiologically more vulnerable to climate-related health risks, particularly during pregnancy,” said Dr. Sungsoo Chun, co-author and public health expert at the American University in Cairo. “This is compounded by inequalities that limit access to healthcare. Marginalized women face a multiplied risk because they are more exposed to environmental hazards and less able to access early screening and treatment services.”
Six countries show the strongest cancer trends
The rise in cancer rates was not evenly spread. According to the study, six countries — Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Syria — experienced statistically significant increases in both cancer prevalence and deaths. These nations are known for extreme summer heat, which may exacerbate underlying environmental and health vulnerabilities.
In Qatar, for example, breast cancer prevalence rose by 560 cases per 100,000 people per degree Celsius — compared to 330 in Bahrain. Such variation points to the complex ways in which climate factors interact with local conditions, such as pollution levels and healthcare access.
How heat may influence cancer risk
While the study doesn’t claim a direct cause-and-effect relationship, the authors suggest several ways in which heat may be contributing to higher cancer risks.
“Temperature rise likely acts through multiple pathways,” said Chun. “It increases exposure to known carcinogens, disrupts healthcare delivery, and may even influence biological processes at the cellular level. Together, these mechanisms could elevate cancer risk over time.”
Increased cancer detection from improved screening could explain some of the rise in prevalence. However, the simultaneous rise in death rates suggests that risk exposure — not just better diagnostics — is a significant factor.
“This study cannot establish direct causality,” Mataria cautioned. “While we controlled for GDP per capita, other unmeasured factors could contribute. Nonetheless, the consistent associations observed across multiple countries and cancer types provide compelling grounds for further investigation.”
A call to action: strengthening public health in a warming world
This research adds to a growing body of evidence that climate change is not just an environmental issue — it’s a public health emergency.
“Strengthening cancer screening programs, building climate-resilient health systems, and reducing exposure to environmental carcinogens are key steps,” said Chun. “Without addressing these underlying vulnerabilities, the cancer burden linked to climate change will continue to grow.”
The findings emphasize the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies that go beyond infrastructure and include the healthcare system — especially in regions already grappling with climate extremes.
